New analysis reveals over 60,000 cancer patients could live at least an extra six months if treatment delays are tackled

LCP’s analysis of cancer targets has today been published as part of a wider analysis by Macmillan Cancer Support into cancer waiting times, highlighting that many people are facing long waits and delays for diagnosis and treatment, which could ultimately impact their survival.

The analysis commissioned by Macmillan Cancer Support suggests that if national 62-day targets were met in the UK instead of continuing to decline, around 64,000 people diagnosed with cancer over the next five years would survive at least an extra six months. This breaks down by each UK country as follows (please note, the target and date shown for it to be achieved varies due to differences in current trends and healthcare systems):

• England: Approximately 58,000 people with cancer would survive an extra six months or more if the 62-day target was met by December 2024
• Scotland: Approximately 1,200 people with cancer would survive an extra six months or more if the 62-day target was met by September 2026
• Wales: Approximately 1,800 people with cancer would survive an extra six months or more if the 62-day target was achieved for 80% of patients by March 2026
• Northern Ireland: Approximately 2,700 people with cancer would survive an extra six months or more if the 62-day target was met by December 2026¹

Robert King, Senior Health Economist at LCP, said: “It is crucial to provide timely diagnosis and high-quality care to cancer patients. However, NHS data shows that the achievement of the UK’s cancer treatment time targets has fallen significantly below the critical 62-day operational standard. This means that cancer patients are waiting longer than they should for essential treatment, which not only can cause additional stress and anxiety for them and their loved ones but also impact their survival.

“It is important to focus on potential improvements that could be made by meeting the 62-day target for cancer treatment either by 2026 or even next year. This will help reduce associated anxiety as well as, importantly, increase life expectancy for cancer patients. We need to address any issues that could hinder this goal, whether they are related to resources or staffing concerns.”

Dr Sreeram Ramagopalan, Principal at LCP, added, “At LCP Health Analytics, our mission is to help shift health systems from importers of illness to exporters of health. By collaborating with leading groups like Macmillan, we can use data to investigate key issues affecting health systems and then work to find effective solutions to address them.”

References

^[1]Macmillan Cancer Support/LCP analysis. LCP used published peer-reviewed academic research that estimated the impact of 4-week delays from a cancer diagnosis to first treatment on people’s survival, taking the waiting times paradox into account where possible. A range of sources were reviewed and considered, with the following two key research papers used as the main reference:

• Hanna TP, King WD, Thibodeau S et al. Mortality due to cancer treatment delay: systematic review and meta-analysis BMJ 2020; 371
• Sud A, Torr B, Jones ME et al. Effect of delays in the 2-week-wait cancer referral pathway during the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival in the UK: a modelling study. Lancet Oncol 2020; 21: 1035–44.

LCP then applied their estimated impacts of delays onto a number of modelled scenarios for waiting times performance in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Results presented here refer to comparing current trends for the relevant 62-day target against the achievement of the target by varying dates depending on current trends, healthcare systems and published plans.