EV sales & trends: A quiz

[00:00:04.240] - Jon Slowe

Welcome to Talking New Energy, a podcast from LCP Delta. I'm Jon Slowe.

[00:00:09.280] - Sandra Trittin

And I'm Sandra Trittin. And together, we are exploring how the energy transition is unfolding across Europe through conversations with guests from the leading edge of the transition.

[00:00:20.870] - Jon Slowe

Hello, and welcome to the episode. Hi, Sandra.

[00:00:25.990] - Sandra Trittin

Hey, Jon. How are you?

[00:00:27.930] - Jon Slowe

I'm good. I'm looking forward to today's bite sized episode because we're gonna have a quiz about developments in the EV sector. And we can see we're gonna compete, Sandra, you and me, to answer 8 questions, about developments in the electric vehicle sector and forecasts for future sales. So, are you feeling competitive today?

[00:00:52.290] - Sandra Trittin

Yes. Yes. Really excited. But besides being competitive, also excited about the outcome of the of the of the questions.

[00:00:58.730] - Jon Slowe

Okay.

[00:01:03.050] - Jon Slowe

To ask us the questions, we've got my colleagues at LCP Delta, Monica Troilo and John Murray from our EV team. Hi, Monica. Hi, John.

[00:01:16.220] - John Murray

Hi, Jon. Hi, Sandra.

[00:01:18.540] - Sandra Trittin

Hello.

[00:01:20.060] - Jon Slowe

And, John and Monica, I think you're going to ask us 8 questions taken from our latest electric vehicle and charge point forecast report and our, 6th annual electric vehicle driver survey. And Sandra and I will guess the answers. You listeners, whoever you're listening to, can also guess along and, see how you do in the quiz. See if you could beat Sandra and me. So, John, I think you're gonna go first. Over to you.

[00:01:48.700] - John Murray

Yep. Thanks, Jon. Yeah. Very exciting. Eight questions, all multiple choice with 3 answers, 3 possible answers for each question.

[00:01:54.700] - John Murray

So, question number 1. Is relating to EV growth from 2019 to 2023 up until the end of 2023. What's been the average annual growth rate of new EV sales in Europe from 2019 to 2023? And the 3 possible answers are:

• 32%,
• 42%,
• or 52%.

And this is in relation to fully electric passenger cars, plug in hybrids, and also electric vans.

[00:02:27.070] - Jon Slowe

I'm gonna go 42%. I'll go first on this 1, Sandra. 42%.

[00:02:33.390] - Sandra Trittin

But, actually, I would take the same. Because when, when John mentioned that it's with relation to all the different types of cars, I would think 42.

[00:02:43.570] - John Murray

They both come with 42%. So you're not yeah. So you're not not splitting yet. Okay. So, the answer actually between 2019 and 2023 was 52% growth, annual growth.

[00:02:55.030] - Sandra Trittin

Wow.

[00:02:55.830] - John Murray

So, a huge amount of growth in the period 2019 to 2023. But the next question is going to be how much growth we've seen. Well, Monica, I'll let you answer it. Question number 2.

[00:03:06.230] - Monica Troilo

Thanks, John. And next question is, what's been the growth of new sales in Europe so far this year versus last year? So, for both passenger cars, BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles) and ZEV (Zero Electric Vehicles) and electric vans. And the 3 possible answers are:

• positive growth at 11%,
• positive growth at 1%,
• or negative growth at minus 1%.

[00:03:35.860] - Jon Slowe

You'll go first, Sandra.

[00:03:38.620] - Sandra Trittin

Since I'm an optimistic person, I... I keep the 11 the 11%.

[00:03:45.260] - Jon Slowe

I'm gonna go with the 1%. What about you? 1%. I'm less optimistic.

[00:03:50.460] - John Murray

Which 1? Positive or negative, Jon?

[00:03:52.500] - Jon Slowe

Positive, positive 1. Positive 1.

[00:03:57.540] - Monica Troilo

Alright. So, actually, the answer is negative 1%.

[00:04:03.460] - Sandra Trittin

Oh, no!

[00:04:04.950] - Monica Troilo

Growth growth detail has been, negative, yeah, for the first time in the past few years.

[00:04:10.390] - Jon Slowe

Well, that's bad for the EV sector. It's bad for...

[00:04:13.030] - John Murray

Actually shrank very slightly.

[00:04:16.870] - Jon Slowe

Bad for the EV sector.

[00:04:18.550] - Jon Slowe

Bad for our scoring as well, Sandra.

[00:04:22.230] - John Murray

Yes. I think the score for 2 questions is, is nil nil. So, may maybe on question 3, we'll we'll we'll get off get off the mark. So, question number 3. What do we forecast the growth will be next year? So, that's 2025 versus what we've seen so far or what we expect 2024 to be.

[00:04:42.130] - John Murray

And the 3 possible answers are:

• +26%,
• +36%,
• or + 46%.

[00:04:50.370] - Sandra Trittin

There I go with the 26.

[00:04:53.970] - Jon Slowe

I was choosing between 26 or 36. I go with 36.

[00:05:01.160] - John Murray

Yep. Okay. Yeah. Well, you're right, Jon.

[00:05:03.160] - John Murray

Yeah, we're going with a plus 36% next year in 2025. And that's largely down to the the emission regulations which are coming in at an European Union level, also the ZEV mandate in the UK, and also the upcoming release of quite large volumes of much more affordable new models coming to market during the course of next year, which will hopefully drive the upturn once again in in EV sales in Europe.

[00:05:33.800] - Sandra Trittin

Thank, thank you for the explanation. Might explain my difference, right, sitting in Switzerland?

[00:05:40.200] - Jon Slowe

Yeah. Well, it's very different from country to country. So, these are, 1 of the things that we explore in our in our forecasting, country specific forecast.

[00:05:48.530] - Sandra Trittin

Great. So, let's hope it materialises. Would be cool.

[00:05:52.610] - John Murray

Yeah. Well, let's see. We can report back again next year.

[00:05:58.280] - Monica Troilo

And on to the 4th question, we go on a country specific question, and we'd like to ask you, which country in Europe will sell the most new fully electric passenger car this year, so at the end of 2024. And, free options are:

• Germany,
• the UK,
• and France.

[00:06:23.120] - Sandra Trittin

But then in relation to the overall sales or total number?

[00:06:29.780] - Monica Troilo

Total number.

[00:06:35.220] - Jon Slowe

I'm going to go...

[00:06:36.100] - Jon Slowe

Oh, that's a tough one.

[00:06:37.300] - Jon Slowe

I'm gonna go UK.

[00:06:40.640] - Sandra Trittin

I go Germany.

[00:06:43.120] - Monica Troilo

Alright. Sandra, you're right.

[00:06:45.760] - Sandra Trittin

Yay!

[00:06:46.320] - Sandra Trittin

Gonna be Germany. Even if the the share of, of, new sales, is higher in the UK, Germany is such a big market. So, the the actual sales is still bigger in in Germany than the UK.

[00:07:04.060] - Jon Slowe

Yeah.

[00:07:04.460] - Monica Troilo

And the but they're gonna trend really close in the next few years.

[00:07:08.110] - John Murray

Yes. And that's despite, BEV sales this year being 26% down compared to last year. So, there's been a huge drop in BEV sales in Germany, but still just the number 1 market, to the head of the UK. Okay. So, question number 5.

[00:07:26.810] - John Murray

What was the share of fully electric passenger cars, so BEVs, in 2024 in Europe? And how does that compare to sales in 2019? So, is it:

•  15% versus 1.4%,
• 15% versus 2.3% in 2019
• or 10% versus 1.2%.

This is the the overall share of fully electric passenger car sales in 2024 across all of Europe.

[00:07:59.150] - Jon Slowe

Sandra, you'll go first.

[00:08:02.190] - Sandra Trittin

Yes. I think it's the last 1. So, it's 15% or 10% fully electric, right, with regards to 1 point something.

[00:08:14.120] - John Murray

1.2% and, it's...

[00:08:15.640] - Sandra Trittin

Yes.

[00:08:17.500] - Jon Slowe

I'm gonna go 15% versus 1.4, the first 1.

[00:08:23.820] - John Murray

Okay. So, Jon, you'll go for 15%, this year versus 1.4% in 2019. Sandra, you'll go for 10% versus 1.2%. And, actually, the answer was the middle 1. It was 50% this year versus 2.2%in in 2019. So nil points.

[00:08:42.640] - Jon Slowe

We're not doing very well, Sandra. We're 1 each, 1 all at the moment after 5 questions.

[00:08:52.710] - Monica Troilo

And going on for to the next question, what will the share of BEV in passenger cars on the road this time rather than new sales in Europe be, by 2030 according to our forecast versus in 2024? So, we got:

•  12% versus 3%, in 2024
• or 20% versus 5%,
• or 20% versus 3%.

[00:09:27.500] - Jon Slowe

So, this is on the road?

[00:09:28.940] - Monica Troilo

This is a tough one.

[00:09:31.100] - Sandra Trittin

On the road.

[00:09:33.500] - Monica Troilo

in by 2030 versus, currently at the end of 2024.

[00:09:43.540] - Sandra Trittin

You want to go first, or should I?

[00:09:45.860] - Jon Slowe

I'll go first this 1. I'm gonna go 20 versus 5.

[00:09:52.700] - Sandra Trittin

I would take the 20 versus 3.

[00:09:57.820] - Monica Troilo

Alright. Yeah. I... I love that you guys are so optimistic, but, unfortunately, the, correct answer was the first. So, 12% versus 3%. And that's because, yeah, the the the the fleet will will still be composed by older models and fuel models. So, that that will take time to reach a 20% EV fleet.

[00:10:26.940] - John Murray

Yeah. This this shows you the, how long it's gonna take actually to convert all the existing cars on the road to be electric. And even when we get towards 50%, 80%, 100% of all new cars being electric, there'll still be a lot of, you know, the legacy cars along the road. Okay. We've got the final 2 questions.

[00:10:45.570] - John Murray

Question number 7. What share of EV drivers that we surveyed this year in Europe had private off street parking? Is it:

• 69%,
• 74%,
• or 79%?

[00:11:05.060] - Sandra Trittin

Of all the EV drivers that you surveyed?

[00:11:07.770] - John Murray

Yeah. So we surveyed, about 5,000 drivers across, 8 markets in Europe, including France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Sweden.

[00:11:19.960] - Jon Slowe

You'll go first, Sandra.

[00:11:25.080] - Sandra Trittin

Yeah. I'm still struggling between the 74 and 79%, because I would think it's still driven by the private usage even though fleets are getting more and more. Probably the 74. I've been too optimistic in the last questions.

[00:11:46.680] - Jon Slowe

I'm just like you. I'm struggling between those 2. I'm gonna go 79.

[00:11:53.480] - Jon Slowe

Oh, no. It's 69%.

[00:11:57.720] - Sandra Trittin

Oh, no.

[00:11:58.360] - John Murray

Yes, yes, yes. But the but the thing is that this is very different from country to country. And in the UK, you'd probably be right if we, if we were to give those answers to the UK. But there are also many countries like in the Netherlands where the off street parking rates are are much lower. And in Spain and Italy, of course, as well, the the the off street parking rates are are are much lower than they are in in other markets. So, I think we've got 1 final question for you both to to redeem yourselves with the I'd end the quiz on a high.

[00:12:27.600] - John Murray

Monica, over to you.

[00:12:30.480] - Monica Troilo

So, last question from our EV driver, as well. What share of BEV drivers that we surveyed say that they changed their electricity tariff as a result of getting an EV, and the free options are:

• 25%,
• 35%,
• and 45%.

[00:12:59.020] - Jon Slowe

I think it's quite high. I'm going to go... I'm gonna go 35% because I'm not sure. I'd like to think it's as high as 45%, but I recon 35%.

[00:13:10.590] - Sandra Trittin

I think I'd take the 25. I think not too many people are changing. But it's then the tariff for the full house or just for the car?

[00:13:20.030] - John Murray

It could be either, Sandra. Yeah.

[00:13:22.190] - Sandra Trittin

Okay. Yeah. 25.

[00:13:31.560] - John Murray

And you you're right, Sandra. It is 25%.

[00:13:36.040] - Sandra Trittin

Yay!!

[00:13:36.760] - Monica Troilo

Nice.

[00:13:38.000] - John Murray

The edge on a high, Sandra. Well done! That that and, actually, this is a question that we've asked for several years though of, of EV drivers. And, actually, it's still a relatively low number of EV drivers are changing their output to the tariff as a result of getting getting an EV. It's trend starting to trend higher, but I think there's still a big untapped opportunity actually for energy retailers, for example, to provide propositions targeted specifically at EV drivers.

[00:14:06.590] - Sandra Trittin

And would you would you have an idea on why that is still so low? Is it that electricity is comparable just to cheap?

[00:14:15.230] - John Murray

Well, I think in some markets, it's it's tied to smart metres rollout, which is improving. But, of course, smart metres are are often required to enable moving on to time of use tariffs, for example. I think in some countries, the difference between on peak and off peak prices is not enough to motivate many customers to... To make the switch, to make the change.

[00:14:37.370] - Sandra Trittin

Mhmm.

[00:14:38.620] - John Murray

And I think energy retailers are, you know, are are improving, but still with work to do, I think, to make really compelling propositions to to EV drivers.

[00:14:47.740] - Sandra Trittin

Mhmm.

[00:14:49.500] - Jon Slowe

Well, Sandra, my conclusion overall is, first of all, you're the winner. You beat me 2-1. Secondly, we both need to read this report because we did terribly enough.

[00:15:01.880] - John Murray

I think it makes a very compelling case, is it not, to get access to our research, Jon, and to, to, to get in touch and find out a bit more about the research and how we can support you, Jon, and Sandra, but also our listeners as well.

[00:15:14.900] - Jon Slowe

Yes. Unless the listeners did a lot better than you and I, Sandra.

[00:15:19.140] - Sandra Trittin

Yes. Okay.

[00:15:28.260] - Jon Slowe

We better draw it to a close there. We've overshot a bit on time, but we hope you all enjoyed that and have a optimistic view of the despite the the not so good year for EVs this year, our forecast showing, an uptick in their forties in the next years. Monica, Jon, thanks very much for the quiz. Not for the results because my score of 1 out of 8 is a bit embarrassing. Sandra well done for winning!

[00:16:09.950] - Sandra Trittin

Thanks for tuning in. We are excited to bring you captivating conversations from the leading edge of Europe's energy transitions. If you got suggestions for topics or guests for future episodes, please let us know.

[00:16:19.180] - Jon Slowe

And if you're enjoying the podcast, then please do rate it and share it with colleagues. For show notes, transcripts, and more, please visit lcpdelta.com.