Wind asset modelling
Energy transition Energy consultancy Due diligence Revenue forecasting Technology
Background
LCP has worked with a number of investors and generation owners in GB and Ireland to evaluate specific wind assets.
Our solution
Our modelling framework enables us to project the generation profiles, achieved prices and imbalance costs for these individual wind assets.
By analysing historic wind speed data, we can assess the correlation of the asset’s generation and that of the fleet and produce concurrent stochastic projections for both wind streams. Combining this with a stochastic simulation of plant outages, demand and solar generation produces a detailed assessment of plant economics, such as the captured wholesale price.
In addition, we are able to evaluate the relationship between the forecasting error of the individual wind asset’s generation and that of the wider wind fleet – which determines the exposure of the asset to imbalance risk.
Our results
Using our modelling, we are able to report:
- Expected average load factors for the assets
- Achieved price of the assets in the wholesale market
- Exposure to imbalance risk
- The frequency with which the asset’s position is aligned with the system imbalance
- Expected levels of wind generation curtailment for system operation constraints
- Expected support payments from low-carbon policy regimes
