Energy transition

Revenue forecasting

Investing in power generation and storage assets has never been so complex. There are multiple revenue streams available to each asset, the backdrop of policy and regulation is in flux, and both decarbonisation and decentralisation are creating opportunities and challenges for many assets.

We support our clients by providing detailed, bankable revenue forecasts across the stack for all asset types, covering wholesale, balancing and ancillary services, as well as network charges and the impacts of location.

We help our clients understand the possible range of outcomes to make sure you stay informed when making key strategic and transactional decisions.

We combine bottom-up unit-level modelling with market and policy insights to quantify the value and risk associated with any generation or storage asset.

Unlike most consultancies, we build our own models to ensure we incorporate the latest policy, regulation and market dynamics in our forward-looking modelling, ensuring market fundamentals drive outturns. We support acquisition, new build, or internal valuations across the full range of technologies: from CCGT and traditional renewables through to storage and hydrogen-based technologies.

Our modelling is trusted by key industry participants, including the UK Government and National Grid, and our credibility extends to supporting with bankable business cases and due diligence.

Our in-depth modelling assesses the stack of revenues available to all technology classes:

Wholesale
Balancing
Ancillary services
Capacity market
Renewable support
Embedded benefits
Locational benefits

We can assess projects under different market scenarios, including key uncertainties such as decarbonisation and decentralisation of the generation mix, policy changes, commodity prices and increased market penetration leading to the cannibalisation of revenues.